11 Jan: Markets steady ahead of Trump News Conference, later today

By | January 11, 2017

 

It has been a reasonably steady session, with some early US$ weakness which has since been largely recovered, to leave most pairs pretty much where they were this time yesterday. Stocks are slightly stronger following a decent day for commodities although oil remains under some pressure.

There is little data due today that is likely to move markets and for the most part it is likely to be fairly quiet. Sterling will be in focus, with the UK Manufacturing/Industrial Production due. The major event is likely to be Donald Trump’s News Conference due late in the European session, which could create some volatility. Traders will be looking for clues as to whether he will be prepared to deliver his election promises and push  for his expansive fiscal policy after his inauguration on January 20

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.0559
Res  1.0585  1.0620  1.0650
Sup  1.0530  1.0510  1.0475
USDJPY: 115.73
Res  116.00  116.35  116.60
Sup  115.50  115.20  114.80
GBPUSD: 1.2165
Res  1.2195  1.2240  1.2285
Sup  1.2110  1.2080  1.2050
USDCHF: 1.0164
Res  1.0190  1.0215  1.0240
Sup  1.0140  1.0110  1.0085
AUDUSD: 0.7367
Res  9111.4740  9507.2270  9875.3690
Sup  8697.3140  8329.1720  7915.0120
NZDUSD: 0.6989
Res  0.7010  0.7045  0.7075
Sup  0.6975  0.6955  0.6930
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2266
Res  2278  2290  2300
Sup  2254  2240  2228
DJI: 19826
Res  19925  19960  19990
Sup  19755  19685  19605
SPI200.fs: 5745
Res  5770  5790  5815
Sup  5720  5700  5680
GOLD: 1186
Res  1190  1200  1214
Sup  1180  1170  1160
XAGUSD: 16.79
Res  16.90  17.00  17.20
Sup  16.55  16.40  16.25
OIL (WTI): 50.82
Res  51.75  52.55  53.20
Sup  50.75  50.00  49.00

 

Indices/commodities
S&P Futures 2266
Stocks are a little higher again today but remain confined within the recent range. The shorter-term momentum indicators neutral and given the comparative lack of data today it may be a rangebound session ahead, although Trump’s news conference change the outlook entirely! The weeklies remain positive, so buying dips would seem to be the longer term theme.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips – tight SL
Resistance Support
2300 Minor 2259 Session low
2290 Minor 2258 6 Jan low
2280 Minor 2240 Minor
2277 All-time high/14 Dec high/6 Jan high 2225 30 Dec low
2273 9 Jan high/Session high 2218 (23.6% of 2028/2277)
DJI Futures 19826
Ditto S+P. Neutral short term, but prefer to buy dips for the longer term trade. SL sub 19650.Watch out for DT today.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips – tight SL
Resistance Support
21000 Minor 19764/58 Session low/6 Jan low
20000 Minor 19700 Minor
19964 All-time high/14 Dec high 19660 30 Dec low
19924/20 6 Jan high/9 Jan high 19600 Minor
19884 Session high 19500 Session low
SPI200.fs 5745
The ASX traded with a heavy tone on Tuesday, retreating from the recent high of 5789 to come back to the support at 5700. Although the short term momentum indicators still look a little heavy, the dailies point higher so a return to the 5754 session high and then possibly to the 5790 area could yet be on the cards, above which there really is not too much resistance ahead of the 29 May 2015 high at 5814, and beyond that, the 5 May 2015 high of 5889. On the downside, support will again be seen at, 5700 and at 5680, where the rising trend support now lies. Buying dips seems to be the plan.
24 Hour:  Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Mildly bullish
Resistance Support
5814 29 May 2015 high 5703 Session low
5800 Minor 5680 Rising trend support
5789 9 Jan high 5650 Neutral
5770 Minor 5615 30 Dec low
5754 Session high 5600 Minor
GOLD 1186
Gold is grinding slowly higher, through the resistance that is layered up to 1200, today peaking at 1190. As before, while the short term momentum indicators are mixed, we should expect some choppy but rather directionless trade but the dailies remain well underpinned, so buying dips seems to be the plan. If we do make it back above the session high of  1190, there is further resistance all the way to 1200. Above there though we could see a swift run to 1215.  Look for 1180/1200 to cover it for now although if Trump is hawkish today and sends the dollar higher, then Gold could come under some swift pressure, with a return to the 1170 area. Technically this does not look likely right now.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to buy dips.
Resistance Support
1220 Minor 1180 Session low
1215 23 Nov high 1174 (23.6% of 1122/1190)
1201 100 WMA 1164 (38.2% of 1122/1190)
1198 28 Nov high 1156 (50% pivot of 1122/1190)
1190 Session high 1148 (61.8% of 1122/1190)
XAGUSD 16.79
Silver traded up to 16.90 on Tuesday meeting good Fibo resistance and, so far, unable to break up through it.

. The short term momentum indicators and the daily charts still  both look mildly underpinned, so if we do take out 16.90, we could head on to 17.00 and to 17.30 although I would be surprised to see it up there in the near term. The downside should now see support at the 100 WMA (Weekly moving Average)  at 16.70, which could still act as a near term pivot, and then at the session low at 16.53.

24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term:  Prefer to buy dips
Resistance Support
18.00 Minor 16.53 Session low
17.90 Minor 16.41 9 Jan low
17.30 (50% of 18.98/15.63) 16.25 6 Jan low/200 HMA
17.21 7 Dec high 15.83 30 Dec low
OIL (WTI) 50.82
WTI has traded lower again on Tuesday, breaking down below 51.00 to currently sit back on the neckline of the long-term reverse Head/Shoulders, mentioned before. Under here could see a sharp reverse lower so if long, I would leave the SL just under 50.00. As long as 50.70 holds, the head/shoulder formation has an objective of 82.00, which seems more or less improbable, but you never know!! In the short term, look for a choppy range of 50.70/54.00 to cover it. Under 50.00 could then head back to 49.00 and possibly towards the 200 DMA at 47.00.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Cautiously long – Tight SL sub 50.00
Resistance Support
54.29 6 Jan high 51.03 Session low
53.80 9 Jan high 50.70 Rising trend support/ Reverse Head/Shoulders Neckline
53.50 200 HMA 50.00 Psychological
53.00 Minor 49.58 8 Dec low
52.34 Session high 49.00 Minor

EURUSD: 1.0559
The Euro did break up through the 1.0600 barrier on Tuesday, reaching 1.0626, only to reverse those gains, finishing the day pretty much unchanged. The short-term momentum indicators are not providing any real inspiration although the Euro does look set to trade heavy in the first half of the coming session. Watch out for Donald Trump’s press conference today. If he follows through on his pre-election promises, we could see the dollar take a turn higher. Further out, the daily charts still point higher so another test of 1.0600 would not really surprise at some stage, above which could see a run towards stronger resistance in the 1.0650/75 area. In the longer term though, as before, I still prefer to sell into strength given that the US data generally remains firm and the Fed look likely to raise rates again while the ECB are going to remain on hold for the foreseeable future and will continue with their QE programme through 2017. Look for something like 1.0500/1.0600 to cover it today, with Trump providing the X factor!
24 Hour: Mildly bearish Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.0702 (38.2% of 1.1299/1.0340) 1.0550 Session low
1.0675 55 DMA/(61.8% of 1.0873/1.0340) 1.0510 (38.2% of 1.0340/1.0624)
1.0650 30 Dec high 1.0478 (50% pivot of 1.0340/1. 0624)
1.0626 Session high 1.0443 (61.8% of 1.0340/1. 0624)
1.0060 Minor 1.0405 (76.4% of 1.0340/1. 0624)

Economic data highlights will include:

ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting , Donald Trump News Conference, EIA Crude Oil Inventory

Meta Trader                                                                                                                                                                                                                     EURUSD: 4 Hour


USDJPY: 115.73
US$Jpy has had a choppy session between 115.19/116.33 and is finishing the day roughly in the middle. The daily indicators generally look rather negative and it could be that we will see the dollar maintain its soft tone with a chance to test 115.  Below 115.00, good support begins to emerge in the 114.10/50 area which may present a buying opportunity, should we see it. If Donald Trump is hawkish in his outlook today, we could see a spike higher in the dollar, where good sellers should begin to emerge in the 116.75/117.00 area although the short term momentum indicators do not really suggest that this is likely to be seen. Overall, the wide sideway range looks set to continue, with the longer term top being at around 118.50.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
117.53 9 Jan high 115.50 Minor
117.25 (61.8% of 118.60/115.06) 115.19 Session low
116.75 200 HMA 115.06 6 Jan Low
116.33 Session high 114.80 Minor
116.00 Minor 114.65 100 WMA

Economic data highlights will include:

Provisional Leading Economic Index, Coincident Index

Meta Trader
USDJPY: 4 Hour


GBPUSD: 1.2165
Cable has traded sideways on Tuesday, within 1.2106/89, leaving the outlook unchanged. While the short term momentum indicators are flat , the daily indicators appear to suggest that Cable will remain under pressure and trading from the short side is again preferred.  Selling into strength once again seems to the plan, with a SL placed above 1.2280 but looking for a continuation of the move lower, with 1.2050 the next major support.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Resistance Support
1.2353 76.4% of 1.2430/1.2106 1.2130 9 Jan low
1.2307 61.8% of 1.2430/1. 2106 1.2106 Session low
1.2265/75 50% of 1.2430/1. 2106/ 200 HMA 1.2081 25 Oct low
1.2230 38.2% of 1.2430/1. 2106 1.2050 (76.4% of 1.1821/1.2773)
1.2180 23.6% of 1.2430/1. 2106 1.2000 Psychological

Economic data highlights will include:

Industrial/Manufacturing data, Trade Balance

Meta Trader
GBPUSD: 4 Hour


USDCHF: 1.0164
US$Chf traded a 1.0110/1.0189 range on Tuesday, leaving the outlook unchanged. While the short term momentum indicators are pointing a little higher, the dailies are still pointing lower so a sterner test of 1.0090/1.0100 may be in order, below which a run to 1.0000 may be seen. On the topside, sellers will be seen at 1.0200 and again at 1.0240, which may be seen if Trump is hawkish today.
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
1.0300 Minor 1.0100 Session low
1.0275 (76.4% of 1.0335/1.0089) 1.0089 6 Jan low
1.0240 (61.8% of 1.0335/1.0089) 1.0050 Minor
1.0210 (50% pivot of 1.0335/1.0089) 1.0035 30 Dec low
1.0189 Session high 1.0000 Psychological

Economic data highlights will include:

Unemployment

Meta Trader                                                                                                                                                                                                                      USDCHF: 4 Hour


AUDUSD: 0.7367
The Aud has traded a tight 0.7330/85 range today leaving the outlook pretty much unchanged. Technically, the short-term momentum indicators are now looking a little heavy, while the dailies remain underpinned, hinting that a test of 0.7400+ may lie ahead at some stage, although a hawkish Trump could see the Aud quickly come under downside pressure. As we said before, a wide range of something like 0.7150/0.7450 (100 DMA) would seem to cover it for a while to come. I still prefer to sell into strength for the longer-term trade given that the weeklies still look negative.
24 Hour: Mildly bearish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7500 100 DMA/200 DMA 0.7330 Session low
0.7450 100 WMA 0.7300 Minor
0.7435 (76.4% of 0.7524/0.7160) 0.7286 9 Jan low/100 HMA
0.7400 Minor 0.7250 200 HMA
0.7385 (61.8% of 0.7524/0.7160)/Session high 0.7225 Minor
Meta Trader
AUDUSD: 4 Hour


NZDUSD: 0.6989
The Kiwi traded a 0.7958/0.7047 range today finishing in the middle and has  a similar outlook to the Aud in that while the dailies still look mildly positive, the short term momentum indicators are now a little heavy. Another rangebound session near current  levels may be the outcome, although the Trump factor could see the Kiwi take a turn to the downside if trade wars loom in the horizon. Looking further out, a wider range of something like 0.6850/0.7150 would seem to cover it for a while to come, and I still prefer to sell into strength although at this stage it does not appear that we are going anywhere to fast directionally.
24 Hour: Mildly bearish Medium Term: Neutral
Resistance Support
0.7115 Minor 0.6958 Session low
0.7093 (61.8% of 0.7238/0.6857) 0.6948 9 Jan low
0.7075 200 DMA 0.6930 Minor
0.7047/48 Session high/ (50% pivot of 0.7238/0.6857) 0.6900 Minor
0.7020 Minor 0.6885 3 Jan low
Meta Trader
NZDUSD: 4 Hour