13 June: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | June 13, 2019

The US$ has made some mild gains on Wednesday despite the softer US inflation data which suggests that a Fed rate cut is on its way. Donald Trump ensured that the Euro remained under pressure with the hint of tariffs on the EU. Gold made some gains despite the dollar’s strength while oil took another hit, down by 4%, after a surprise increase in the weekly inventory figures. Stocks were flat.

EurUsd:  The Euro is a little weaker on Thursday after another rather tight range of 1.1343/1.1286, finishing at the day’s lows after having earlier been unable to overcome the resistance at 1.1345/50. The short term momentum indicators currently look heavy although we are sitting above decent support at 1.1270 (100 DMA), ahead of 1.1258 (38.2% of 1.1115/1.1346), 1.1230 (50% of 1.1115/1.1346), the 55 DMA at 1.1215 and 1.1205 (61.8% of 1.1115/1.1346). Back above 1.1300 would find sellers at 1.1310/15 and at 1.1340/50.  Above here looks unlikely today but the dailies remain very mildly positive, and above there would allow for the 200 DMA at 1.1365 and 1.1400, above which, the target would be the 20 March high at 1.1447. Right now I remain fairly neutral although the short term momentum indicators do suggest a look at the downside. Overall though I doubt that we are going anywhere too fur until the FOMC meeting next week and further choppy sideways trade seems to be the likely outcome.

DXY:  (97.00) The DXY recovered from the selloff of the last couple of days although it still trapped between the 100 DMA at 97.00 and the 200 DMA at 96.48 and a break of either side may provide the next directional move. On the topside, above 97.00 – where we currently sit – resistance will be seen at 97.25/35 and then at 97.65. The downside support is seen at 97.50, below which would open the way towards 96.25, 96.00 and possibly towards the 20 March low, at 95.74. While being fairly neutral right now, the dailies do still point lower but overall I think we are in for some choppy conditions ahead of next week’s FOMC Meeting.

US$Jpy: is at 108.50 again, after another tight 30 point range (108.21-56). The short term momentum indicators are neutral although the dailies may be trying to from a base to head higher, and if so, the points of resistance are seen at 108.79 (Session high) and then at 108.88 (23.6% of 112.39/107.80). Above here, 109.00/15 offers resistance, beyond which would run into 109.55 (38.2% of 112.39/107.80). On the downside, support will again be seen at 108.35, 108.20 and at 108.00 ahead of 107.80. This seems unlikely to be seen today, but if wrong, the next target is seen at 107.50 (4 Jan low).

US$Chf:  continues to recover from the recent selloff to 0.9853 and the momentum indicators generally look mildly positive ahead of today’s SNB Interest Rate Decision. If we do see further gains, the initial resistance will arrive nearby, at 0.9965 (200 DMA), but above which could see a run towards 1.0000 and to 1.0035 (100 DMA). On the downside, minor support levels will be seen at 0.9900, 0.9880 and at 0.9850/55. Overall, buying dips is favoured.

 AudUsd:  The Aud traded in a heavy fashion throughout the day and remains under pressure early on Thursday, with the daily momentum indicators now looking to be turning lower  If so, on the downside, support will be seen nearby, at 0.6923 (61.8% of 0.6864/0.7020) and 0.6900 ( 76.4% of 0.6864/0.7020).  Below 0.6900 will then find buyers at 0.6880/90, below which could eventually head towards the trend low at 0.6865, albeit probably not today. A rally will find offers at 0.6850/60, at 0.6985/95 and at 0.7000/05 ahead of Friday’s high at 0.7020 and the 55 DMA at 0.7025although this now looks a long way off. Trading from the short side is preferred although the downside is likely to find support from the strong iron ore price, so the activity will be slow.   

NzdUsd: The Kiwi remained heavy on Wednesday but is holding on to 0.6570 after pulling up just ahead of 0.6565 (61.8% of 0.6495/0.6680) to currently sit at 0.6560. It still looks heavy though and below 0.6565/70 would target 0.6538 (76.4% of 0.6495/0.6680), 0.6525 (minor) and 0.6500. On the topside, resistance will be seen at 0.6600/05 (200 HMA/100HMA), 0.6620 (minor), at 0.6650 (minor), ahead of 0.6665 and the Friday spike high at 0.6680. Selling rallies with a SL placed above 0.6620 currently seems to be the plan.

WTI: fell 4% on Wednesday back towards the recent trend lows of 50.58 and looking heavy, with the prospect of a move to test 50.00 seemingly quite possible. The dailies are pointing lower and if we do see 50.00, stops could trigger further losses towards 49.00/25 (minor) and then to 48.00 (76.4% of 42.23/66.57). On the topside, minor resistance will be seen at 52.50 ahead of the Wednesday high of 53.02. Beyond here currently looks unlikely, but if wrong, another squeeze could see a move towards the 10 June high of 54.79. Selling rallies is preferred.


*Trade of the day: June 13, 2019; 8:44 AM(AET)                    

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1310. SL @ 1.1355, TP @ 1.1255

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1245. SL @ 1.1195, TP @ 1.1345

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6970. SL @ 0.7015, TP @ 0.6900

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6885. SL @ 0.6860, TP @ 0.6970

Buy US$Jpy @108.10. SL @ 107.75, TP @ 109.00

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6595. SL @ 0.6625, TP @ 0.6565

Buy US$Chf @0.9920. SL @ 0.9880, TP @ 1.0020