13 Sept: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | September 13, 2019

It was all about the Euro on Thursday, following the ECB announcement, although at the end of the session the charts for EurUsd look pretty confused, so I suspect further choppy trade near current levels are now likely heading into the weekend unless the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index/Retail Sales spring a surprise.

The Eur/Xs look slightly more directional and the Euro does look bid against various majors, including the Jpy, Chf and Aud while looking heavy in the medium term against Sterling.

Stocks still look as though they have further to run on the topside, while Gold seems to be putting in a top although the price action does remain volatile.

Note that UsdCnh seems to have further downside, which will come about if progress is made between the US/China in the trade negotiations.


*Trade of the day: September 13, 2019; 8:12 AM(AET)                  

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1100. SL @ 1.1125, TP @ 1.1000

Buy EurUsd @ 1.0990. SL @ 1.0945, TP @ 1.1100

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6890. SL @ 0.6915, TP @ 0.6800

Buy AudUsd @ 0.6840. SL @ 0.6815, TP @ 0.6885

Buy NzdUsd @ 0.6390. SL @ 0.6355, TP @ 0.6450

Sell Gold @ 1515. SL @ 1530, TP @ 1480


EurUsd:   The Euro had a wild ride following the ECB, falling sharply to a low of 1.0927 ahead of an equally sharp bounce to 1.1086, matching the Sept 5 high (1.1085), before ending the session at 1.1065. A cautious stance is required on Friday, but the near term momentum seem to point a little higher, and a break above 1.1085 would then allow for a run towards 1.1100 and 1.1110 (38.2% of 1.1411/1.0925/descending trend resistance). Above here would then target 1.1125 (61.8% of 1. 1249/1.0925) and the 26 August high of 1.1163 but which seems unlikely to be visited again for a while, although a return to the top side of the descending wedge (1.1300) cannot be ruled out at some stage. On the downside, minor support will today  be seen at 1.1050, at 1.1035 (100 HMA) and again 1.1020 (200 HMA) ahead of 1.1000. Below here looks unlikely but further bids would arrive at 1.0965/70 and then at 1.0940/50 ahead of the 1.0925/27 double bottom. Below that opens the way to 1.0900 and to 1.0860 (76.4% of 1.0340/1.2555), below which there is a weekly chart gap that would take us to 1.0772. Buying dips, with a SL placed below 1.0980 may again be the plan for today, in what I suspect may be a rangebound session within 1.1010/1.1110 unless the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (exp 90.9) or the Retail Sales spring a surprise (exp 0.2%).


US$Jpy:  is still squeezing higher while the risk-on mood underpins the pair, and it currently sits at a 6 week high at 108.10, but up against stiff resistance right here (100 DMA/(76.4 of 109.31/104.44). With the daily momentum indicators pointing higher though, we could see a run towards 108.45/50 (minor resistance), beyond which would open the way to 108.80/109.00 and then to the 1 August high at 109.31. On the downside, the initial support now sits at 107.80 (minor) and then at 107.50 (100 HMA). Below here could then see a return to 107.25/30 (rising trend support/23.6% of 104.43/108.15) and to 107.00(200 HMA), which seems unlikely to be seen for a while, but if wrong, look for a move towards 106.75 (38.2%). Looking to buy dips with a SL under 107.50 may be the plan today.


AudUsd:  The Aud$ had a brief spike to 0.6894 in the US session but it was unable to hang on, and at the start of Friday trade it sits at the familiar level at 0.6865. The momentum indicators are now mixed, with the short term momentum indicators looking heavy but the longer term charts still look constructive for further gains in the days ahead. A break to the topside could see a move back to 0.6895/ 0.6900 (0.6902= 100 DMA) and then to 0.6926 (61.8% of 0.7082/0.6676), above which would open the way towards0.6950 (minor) and then to 0.6985 (76.4%).On the downside, the short term momentum indicators do seem to be turning heavy, and with the 4 hour charts pointing lower, the initial support will be seen today 0.6845/50 (0.6845 = 23.6% of 0.6687/0.6875) and again at 0.6815 (38.2%). This seems unlikely to be visited today, but if wrong, below there could see a decline towards 0.6790 (50% of 0.6687/0.6829). I don’t really see it under there for a while but if wrong, further bids would arrive at 0.6765 (61.8%) and at 0.6735(76.4%).  In the absence of any data today, 0.6850/0.6900 may well cover it.


NzdUsd: Having made a very brief visit to a new trend high at 0.6450 in early Europe trade on Thursday, the Kiwi has since turned heavy and currently sits just above the session lows of 0.6399. The short term momentum indicators hint at further downside momentum, and if so, on a sustained break of 0.6400, we may see a move towards last Friday’s low of 0.6363 and last Thursday’s low of 0.6353 although this seems over the horizon for now. In the bigger picture, further declines though would target 0.6330, below which could head back to 0.6300 and then the trend low of 0.6269.  The long term momentum indicators still look heavy and on any move below 0.6270, the next meaningful support is not seen until the September 2015 low at 0.6235, while more distant bids would arrive at the August 2015 low at 0.6125. That is a long way off, and in the meantime, the dailies still look constructive, so a return to the 0.6350 high is not to be ruled out. Above this, which I don’t see happening today, would allow a move towards 0.6466 (38.2% of 0.6789/0.6269) and then onto 0.6498 (9 August high) and possibly towards 0.6530 (50% pivot of 6789/0.6269).