15 Aug: Forecast: FX: US$/Majors

By | August 15, 2017


I will be away for the next 4 weeks, as of today, and the service will be limited. Daily updates, mainly trading ideas, will be posted at various stages during each session but the daily outlook will be on hold until I return. Happy trading!

EURUSD: 1.1778
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred Strategy: The short term momentum indicators look mildly negative on Tuesday, and with the dailies still pointing lower, buying the US$ is looking a little more constructive. I would therefore attempt to sell the Euro above 1.1800, looking for a return to 1.1700, although a soft reading in today’s US Retail Sales will put the dollar back on the defensive. SL on shorts above 1.1850
Resistance Support
1.1890 Minor 1.1780 200 WMA
1.1857 (76.4% of 1.1909/1. 1688) 1.1769 Session low
1.1846 Friday high 1.1748 Friday low
1.1837 Session high 1.1705 Minor
1.1795 200 HMA 1.1688 8 Aug  low

Economic data highlights will include:

Assumption Day Holiday, German GDP(Q2), US Retail Sales, New York State Empire Mfg Index, Import/Export Index, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, API weekly Crude Oil Stock Inventory

USDJPY: 109.61
24 Hour: Mildly Bullish Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. The short term momentum indicators hint at a mild topside squeeze, and that could come about if tensions over N Korea continue to ease. The dailies are also looking less negative than yesterday, so I do mildly prefer the topside, looking for a squeeze towards 110.00/10, which should be decent resistance if we see it up there.  While neutral in the medium term, for a day trade I prefer to buy dips towards 109.30/40, looking for a run up to 110.00. A break of 110.00/10 could see an acceleration higher.  SL @ 108.90
Resistance Support
110.90 (38.2% of 114.50/108.73) 109.35 Minor
110.30 Minor 109.03 Session low
110.08/05 (23.6% of 114.50/108.73) /Descending trend resistance 108.80 200 WMA
109.85 Minor 108.73 Friday low
109.76 Session high 108.50 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

Industrial Production, Capacity

GBPUSD: 1.2961
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred Strategy: Neutral. Cable was choppy on Monday, finishing slightly lower and would seem set to remain that way on Tuesday, again possibly using 1.3000 as a pivot although I still prefer to sell rallies for the medium term downtrend.  Watch out for the UK CPI (exp 2.5% mm, 2.7% yy), PPI and RPI which will provide the day’s direction, if a long way from expectations.
Resistance Support
1.3102 (50% of 1.3266/1.2938) 1.2955 Session low
1.3064 (38.2% of 1.3266/1.2938) /200 HMA 1.2938 Friday low
1.3052 8 Aug  high 1.2927 (50% of 1.2588/1.3267)
1.3021 Session high 1.2900 Minor
1.3000 Pivot 1.2847 (61.8% of 1.2588/1.3267)

Economic data highlights will include:


USDCHF: 0.9721
24 Hour: Prefer to buy dips Medium Term: Neutral
Preferred Strategy:  Neutral. The easing of tensions has seen another move out of the Chf, with the dollar now back towards last week’s highs. Further progress seems possible and buying dips towards/below 0.9700, with a SL placed under 0.9650 may be the plan. Targets are 0.9770, 0.9805 and then 0.9845.
Resistance Support
0.9845 Minor 0.9700 Minor
0.9807 30 May high 0.9665 Minor
0.9772 8 Aug  high/100 DMA 0.9635 Minor
0.9750 Minor 0.9600 100 MMA
0.9732 Session high 0.9582 Friday low

AUDUSD: 0.7852
24 Hour: Prefer to sell rallies Medium Term: Mildly Bearish.
Preferred Strategy: The Aud is back towards last week’s lows and looking heavy, so once again, trading from the short side, selling rallies towards 0.7970/80 with a SL above 0.7920 could be a plan for Tuesday. The RBA Minutes will provide the guidance, but I am looking for an eventual test of 0.7800 and then 0.7780.
Resistance Support
0.7980/85 4 Aug high/200 MMA 0.7844 Session low
0.7945 Minor 0.7838 Friday low
0.7918 Session high 0.7800 Minor
0.7900 Minor 0.7782 (38.2% of 0.7328/0.8065)
0.7875 100 HMA 0.7750 Minor

Economic data highlights will include:

New Motor Vehicle Sales, RBA Minutes

NZDUSD: 0.7287
24 Hour: Neutral Medium Term: Mildly Bearish  – Prefer to sell rallies
Preferred Strategy:  The short term momentum indicators are neutral today but the dailies still point lower, so trading from the short side remains the them, today looking to sell near 0.7300, but looking for a move towards 0.7200. SL above 0.7330. Watch out for the Global Dairy Trade Index tonight.
Resistance Support
0.7385 Minor 0.7280 Session low
0.7370 8 Aug  high/(38.2% of 0.7557/0.7251) 0.7274 (38.2% of 0.6817/0.7557)
0.7355 10 Aug high 0.7262 18 July low
0.7330 Session high 0.7251 Friday low
0.7300 Minor 0.7215 12 July low

Economic data highlights will include:

Global Dairy Trade Index