16 Oct: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | October 16, 2018

There is a fair bit of “blue” on the heat map today, particularly relating to the FX market, hinting at the indecision as to the next direction for the dollar and the other majors. So as before, for the coming 24 hours, range trading opportunities generally look to be the most likely outcome although the Kiwi is looking better bid in the medium term and could receive a boost if this mornings CPI beats expectations (exp 0.7%qq/prior 0.4%qq; 1.7%yy/prior 1.5%yy). Elsewhere, the collar looks mixed, but under some pressure against the Jpy, while Cable still looks OK from a technical perspective but is best left alone due to the never-ending Brexit headlines.

On the crosses there is little clarity, although NzdJpy may be building a reverse S/H/S pattern and a break of 73.50 would suggest a run up towards 74.40/50; as above, keep and eye on the NZ CPI.

The stock markets are moving sideways right now, allowing the short-term momentum indicators are to recover, but the longer-term charts still hint that selling rallies is probably still the plan.

Gold looks slightly more positive on the longer-term charts although the 4 hourlies are overbought and appear to be turning lower so in the near term, another run back t 1210/15 would seem possible, but that may provide a longer-term buying opportunity, if seen.

Economic Calendar today:

Tue: NZ CPI, WBC Consumer Confidence, RBA Minutes, China CPI/Press Conference, UK Unemployment, EU Trade Balance, German/EU ZEW Economic Sentiment Survey, US Q3 PCE, US Capacity Utilisation, Industrial Production,


*Trade of the day: October 16, 2018 7:24 AM(AET)                       

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1640. SL @ 1.1680, TP @ 1.1500

Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1525/1.1625

Range Trade: US$Jpy : 111.20/112.20

Range Trade: AudUsd: 0.7060/0.7160