19 Feb: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | February 19, 2019

There is a lot of blue on the heat map at the start of the Tuesday session, particularly in the FX markets, and it may be that we are in for another day of choppy but directionless price action

It may be worth noting that;

  1. AudUsd reached 0.7160, before backing off to turn a bit lower, where the 100 DMA and the 55 DMA capped further gains. Shorts could place a tight SL above this level, or alternatively, buy the break higher, looking for a move towards the 200 DMA, currently at 0.7275. The RBA Minutes will provide the directional bias today.
  2. US$Chf looks as if it might be forming a minor Head/Shoulders top – see hourly charts – , currently sitting on the neckline at the 200 HMA, but with a potential downside objective of around 0.9980.
  3. EurUsd remains within the wide 1.1215/1.1565 range of the last 3 months and it would appear that this is set to continue, so medium term traders could use this as a guide. A break of either side would lead to something more directional. As for today, I suspect 1.1250/1.1365 should cover it.

US stocks have been quiet due to the public holiday but remain underpinned, and once again, buying dips is favoured although any negative “trade-talk” headlines could see stocks reverse lower. Right now, investors do not seem to anticipate this happening.

WTI also still seems to be a “buy-on -dips” scenario, and is now well above the neckline of the Head/Shoulders, currently trading at 56.25. The target here is at around $68.00 and the SL should be just below 54.00.

Gold is firm but may be showing signs of topping out, so cautiously selling rallies may be a plan – but wiha tight SL in place. In the longer term, Gold may want to test the #100 week MA, at 1352.


*Trade of the day: February 19, 2019; 10.50 AM(AET)                       

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7160. SL @ 0.7205, TP @ 0.7060

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7080. SL @ 0.7030, TP @ 0.71500

Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1250/1.1270 (SL 50 pips either side)

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1365. SL @ 1.1405, TP @ 1.1270

Buy US$Chf @ 0.9980. SL @ 0.9940, TP @ 1.0100

Buy WTI @ 54.80. SL @ 53.50, TP @ 58.00

Sell Gold @ 1333. SL @ 1338, TP @ 1320