20 June: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | June 20, 2019

The FOMC meeting has seen the US$ come under some downside pressure, with Gold and Silver taking advantage and the stock markets also looking to continue their positive run higher. Oil had a choppy session but also ended mildly higher and looking constructive on the charts.

EurUsd:  The Euro has now regained the lost ground seen after Mario Draghi’s dovish comments earlier in the week and looks mildly positive in the short term charts. If so, look for a run towards the session high of 1.1253, seen immediately after the Fed announcement, beyond which would suggest a test of the Fibo levels at 1.1263 (50% of 1.1346/1.1180) and 1.1285 (61.8%) and 1.1307 (76.4%). On the downside, intraday support will be seen at 1.1200 and at the session low of 1.1186 and with the dailies looking slightly negative, a test of 1.1170 (76.4% of 1.1115/1.1346) would not surprise at some stage. A break of this would then open the way to 1.1150 and lower, where 1.1135 is minor support ahead of the 30 May low of 1.1115 and the 23 May spike low of 1.1106. A fairly neutral stance is required today, but overall, buying dips with a SL placed below 1.1185 may be the plan.

DXY:  (97.25) The DXY looks rather neutral on Thursday and a fairly cautious stance seems wise.. Nearby resistance lies at 0.97.50, 97.65 and again at 97.75/80 beyond which could allow a run to 98.00 and to the trend high seen on 23 May, at 98.37. On the downside, support will be seen at the 100 DMA at 97.00 and further out, at 96.51 (200 DMA). Looking to buy dips is still favoured in the longer term, with a SL placed below 96.50. Below there could get ugly for the dollar, but until then I still mildly favour the upside as I think the US economy will still outperform the EU/China.

US$Jpy: has headed lower following the FOMC but still holds on above 108.00 – just –, and I suspect that we have further choppy range trading ahead – as long as 107.80 holds. Right now the short term momentum indicators do look a little heavy but the longer term charts appear rather neutral so a cautious stance is needed, with the BOJ likely to drive the direction today. On the downside, support will again be seen at 108.00 ahead of 107.80. A break of this would be significant and would allow a move to the next target seen at 107.50 (4 Jan low) and possibly lower towards 107.20 (61.8% of 104.00/112.40). On the topside, resistance will be seen at 108.40 (minor) ahead of   108.60 (Session high),  and then at 108.79 (11 June high) and at 108.88 (23.6% of 112.39/107.80). Above here, 109.00/15 offers resistance, beyond which would run into 109.55 (38.2% of 112.39/107.80).

AudUsd:  The Aud attempted to show signs of life by spiking to 0.6908 after the FOMC but was quickly back at 0.6880 as traders feel that the RBA will go cut-for-cut with the Fed.. The short term momentum indicators still look mildly constructive, and we could see another run towards 0.6905-100 (6904 = 38.2% of 0.7020/0.6831), above which could see a run towards 0.6918 (23.6% of 0.7207/0.6831), to 0.6925 (50% of 0.7020/0.6831) and to 0.6948 (61.8% of 0.7020/0.6831). The daily momentum indicators are still heavy though, and on the downside, a break of 0.6850 would open the way back to 0.6830 and the January 2016 low at 0.6826. Further out, a move towards 0.6600/0.6700 seems to be on the cards although much will depend on the Fed and the RBA and what monetary policy looks like further down the track.

NzdUsd: The Kiwi is unchanged from 24 hours ago despite a brief spike up to 0.6561 following the Fed announcement. The short term momentum indicators still look positive and further gains could see a move towards 0.6545 (minor) and then back to 0.6560 (38.2% of 0.6680/0.6487) and possibly on towards 0.6585 (50%) and 0.6606 (61.8%). The downside will find bids at 0.6500 and again at 0.6480/90, which will be strong, although unlikely to be seen in the short term. If wrong, below 0.6480 would target 0.6464 (26 Oct 2018 low) and then 0.6426 (9 Oct ‘18 low). In the short term, while the Kiwi looks bid, buying dips may be the plan but further out I think we see another downside test, albeit that this may take a while.

Gold:  is back at 1360 and within touching distance of the January/April double top at 1365/66, which if taken out would be quite a bullish scenario. If so, the next target would be at the July 2016 high of 1375 and the March 2014 high of 1392, a break of which would open the way to 1450, albeit there are some strong resistance levels ahead of that. On the downside, support will be seen at 1350, where the 100 month MA lies, and which could act as a magnate over the next few sessions. Below here would see a return to 1340/30, although probably not today. The dailies are overbought, but with the daily/weekly charts looking increasingly positive, the upside seems to be building momentum for a move higher.

Silver: as with Gold, Silver had a good session, finishing at right on the 100 DMA at 15.15 and looking as though there are further gains ahead. The short term momentum indicators now look constructive, and beyond the 100 DMA would want to look at 15.25 (50% pivot of 16.21/14.29) and 15.48 (61.8% of 16.21/14.29). Beyond there, resistance would arrive at 15.63 (20 March high) and at 15.75 (76.4% of 16.21/14.29). On the downside, nearby support will be seen at 15.00 and then at minor Fibo levels, at 14.85, 14.73 and at 14.62. For now, buying dips seems to be the plan.


*Trade of the day: June 20, 2019; 8:30 AM(AET)                    

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1275. SL @ 1.1305, TP @ 1.1185

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1190. SL @ 1.1165, TP @ 1.1280

Sell AudUsd @ 0.6915. SL @ 0.6940, TP @ 0.6800

Buy AudUsd @0.6850. SL @ 0.6825, TP @ 0.6920

Sell NzdUsd @ 0.6565. SL @ 0.6590, TP @ 0.6485

Buy NzdUsd @ 0.6505. SL @ 0.6480, TP @ 0.6580

Buy Silver @ 15.00. SL @ 14.70, TP @ 15.50