23 Feb: US yields slightly lower, pushing the US$ down too. EU CPI & Fed speakers ahead today.

By | February 23, 2018

 

The US$ is a little lower today after US Treasury yields slipped back, with the 10s, instead of attempting an assault on 3.00%, actually declined, to currently sit at 2.92%. The Yen and the Chf were in obvious demand on safe-haven grounds and have only recovered mildly into the end of the session. Stocks have had a choppy ride and have only bounced mildly after making a 12-day low. Overall, stocks now look indecisive and a neutral stance seems wise although I do not think we are finished on the downside yet.

In terms of data, the focus was on the German IFO Business Climate/Expectations, which came in slightly below consensus: (Expectations 105.4 vs 107.9 vs 108.3; previous revised down from 108.4. Current assessment,126.3 vs 127.0 exp, vs 127.7 previous). Also released was the UK Q4 Provisional GDP (0.4% vs 0.5% exp).

Elsewhere, Gold is firmer, in line with the softer dollar, while WTI settled higher after data showed US domestic oil supplies fell for the first time in four weeks as exports surged to record highs. Inventories of US crude fell by 1.616 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 9, confounding expectations of a of 2.355 million barrels.

Friday will begin with the NZ Q4 Retail Sales (exp 1.4%) and the Japan January CPI (exp 1.3%yy). This will be followed up in Europe by the German Q4 GDP (exp 0.6%qq, 2.3%yy) and the EU CPI (Jan), which will be the main feature of the day (exp -0.9%mm, 1.3%yy, Core; -1.5%mm, +1%yy).  That aside there will be an EU council meeting, which may see some headlines that create a few waves but there is nothing at all from the US in what may end up being a fairly quiet end to the week

CURRENCIES
EURUSD: 1.2326
Res  1.2360  1.2390  1.2415
Sup  1.2295  1.2260  1.2235
USDJPY: 106.73
Res  107.00  107.35  107.60
Sup  106.60  106.45  106.05
GBPUSD: 1.3954
Res  1.3990  1.4010  1.4025
Sup  1.3935  1.3905  1.3875
USDCHF: 0.9330
Res  0.9350  0.9380  0.9410
Sup  0.9320  0.9300  0.9280
AUDUSD: 0.7844
Res  0.7860  0.7880  0.7900
Sup  0.7825  0.7790  0.7760
NZDUSD: 0.7339
Res  0.7355  0.7385  0.7410
Sup  0.7325  0.7305  0.7280
INDICES / COMMODITIES
S+P: 2712
Res  2720  2730  2740
Sup  2700  2690  2680
DJ30.fs: 25016
Res  25145  25260  25415
Sup  24885  24755  24575
SPI200.fs: 5954
Res  5965  5985  6010
Sup  5940  5920  5900
GOLD: 1331
Res  1335  1340  1345
Sup  1325  1320  1315
XAGUSD: 16.60
Res  16.75  16.85  17.00
Sup  16.50  16.35  16.20
OIL (WTI): 62.68
Res  63.05  63.65  64.25
Sup  62.10  61.50  60.80