24 Oct: Stocks plummet and then recover. WTI down 4.5%. PMIs in focus today. ECB meeting tomorrow. US GDP Friday.

By | October 24, 2018


It was all about the stock markets today, which fell 2%-2.5% before a strong bounce and then a drift lower into the close, to finish down around 0.5%; probably not a bad result on the day but the longer term charts still look ominous and selling rallies is still preferred. It was therefore generally a risk-off session, with the Yen and Gold in demand, although they too both saw a mild reversal late in the day as stocks recovered.

The FX markets have been choppy/sideways but going nowhere fast and look to be on hold while awaiting tomorrow’s ECB Meeting and Friday’s US GDP reading. In terms of news today, the EU commission has told Italy to resubmit their budget after refusing to accept the Italian proposal, but the Italian PM, Conte, has said that there is no “Plan B”. The result was expected and the Euro showed little reaction but this is going to be an ongoing problem and not a positive input for the Euro. Meanwhile, Sterling was underpinned today following a headline that the EU is said to be willing to offer a UK-wide customs union agreement proposal to Theresa May.

Elsewhere, WTI was a major player during the session, falling another 4% and putting the 16 month uptrend under severe pressure. 63.50 looks quite possible now.

It will be the global flash PMIs that dominate the calendar on Wednesday, with little else of the agenda. As we already said, traders are more likely to stand aside while waiting on Thursday’s ECB Meeting and then on Friday’s US GDP reading, when the US government releases its first estimate for Q3 gross domestic product, followed by the personal-consumption expenditures. Unexpectedly strong readings could send Treasury yields on a fresh run higher, probable leading to a stronger dollar, although recent data has suggested that, even with the economy growing at a healthy clip, inflation pressures remain muted. Bond yields did head sharply lower today but then recovered in line with US stocks and the 10s are currently at 3.17%.

Economic data will include:

Wed: Japan/EU/US Preliminary PMIs

EURUSD: 1.1471
Res  1.1495  1.1520  1.1550
Sup  1.1450  1.1430  1.1400
USDJPY: 112.37
Res  112.60  112.85  113.15
Sup  112.20  111.95  111.60
GBPUSD: 1.2982
Res  1.3000  1.3025  1.3050
Sup  1.2955  1.2920  1.2895
USDCHF: 0.9950
Res  0.9980  1.0010  1.0050
Sup  0.9935  0.9895  0.9860
AUDUSD: 0.7089
Res  0.7100  0.7125  0.7150
Sup  0.7075  0.7060  0.7040
NZDUSD: 0.6556
Res  0.6570  0.6590  0.6610
Sup  0.6535  0.6520  0.6505
S&P.fs: 2741
Res  2755  2770  2785
Sup  2725  2710  2690
DJ30.fs: 25176
Res  25290  25425  25575
Sup  25115  24945  24750
SPI200.fs: 5820
Res  5840  5860  5880
Sup  5800  5780  5760
XAUUSD: 1230
Res  1235  1240  1245
Sup  1225  1220  1215
XAGUSD: 14.73
Res  14.85  14.95  15.05
Sup  14.65  14.55  14.45
WTI.fs: 66.31
Res  66.95  67.70  68.50
Sup  65.70  64.45  63.50