Stocks ended Friday a little higher (+0.8%) while the US$ was mixed ahead of the G20 meeting and the Trump-Xi summit that took place over the weekend. The major mover was the Euro, which seemed to be undermined by the better than expected Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, which came in better than expected, while Cable also remained heavy ahead of the upcoming UK Parliament vote on whether to accept the Brexit deal (Dec 11). The metals were steady and WTI was down by -1.5% but it did manage to finish the month above 50.00pb.
Over the weekend, with China and the US agreeing to a ceasefire in the trade war after the G20 talks in Argentina, risk markets are likely to open the week higher. There will be no escalated tariffs on Jan 1, with the US leaving tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports at 10% at the beginning of 2019, while agreeing to not raise them to 25%“at this time”. Really it seems more like a truce than a breakthrough and if there is no progress in the talks, then risk sentiment will again turn negative, as thoughts of a global slowdown begin to rise to the surface. In the meantime, markets seem set to be quite positive, with the Aud$ and the Kiwi both looking very buoyant in early Monday trade..
The coming week will be busy on most days, and the next 24 hours will be spent disseminating the outcome of the G20. but looking further ahead, the key data focus this week will be on Friday’s US employment data (NFP; exp +205K, Headline rate;3.7%, AHE; 0.3%). Ahead of that, the main points of interest will be on the Manufacturing PMIs (Monday), RBA Interest Rate Decision(Tue), Australian Q3 GDP (Wed), OPEC Meeting (Thur), EU Q3 GDP, US Employment data (Fri). Have a good week.
Economic data highlights will include:
Mon: NZ Terms of Trade, Australian AIG Performance of Mfg Index, Building Permits, ANZ Job Ads, Company Gross Operating Profits, RBA Coincident Index, China Caixin China Manufacturing PMI, EU Manufacturing PMIs, EU Sentix Investor Confidence Survey, ISM Mfg PMI/Prices Paid, Total Vehicle Sales, Construction Spending
Tue: Australian TD Inflation, Current Account, RBA Interest Rate Decision, EU PPI, US ISM NY Business Conditions, Global Dairy Trade Index
Wed: NZ ANZ Commodity Price Index, Australian Performance of Services Index, Q3 GDP, Caixin China Services PMI, Japan Services PMI, ECB Non-MP Meeting, EU Services/Composite PMIs, EU/US Retail Sales, US ADP Jobs data
Thur: OPEC Meeting, Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance, German Factory Orders, US Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
Fri: Australian AIG Performance of Construction Index, China Foreign Exchange Reserves, Japan Leading Economic Index, Coincident Index, German Industrial Production, EU Q3 GDP, Employment Change, US Jobs/NFP/Average Hourly Earnings data, Rts/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit
|INDICES / COMMODITIES|