3-Jan-17: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities,Indices

By | January 3, 2017

2017 begins with the immediate picture looking rather confused and a little non-committal. From a technical perspective no clear picture emerges, with the possible exception of the stock markets, where it does seem as though we may see slightly weaker levels in the days ahead. Both the S+P and the Dow appear heavy and could drag other stock markets lower in tandem, although European markets have got off to a decent start, with the DAX finishing the Monday session up 1%.  I prefer to trade the US markets from the short side.

I would not be too tied to any particular idea in the currencies in the near term although, further out, it looks as though it will be the US$ that continues to dominate the direction. With the Trump inauguration now only two weeks away we could begin to see some decent swings there, although in the short term nothing really stands out and the dollar is coming up against some reasonable resistance at current levels. The crosses are generally mixed, with little standing out as to possible trading ideas.

The picture for commodities also looks confused, and again, much depends on the direction of the US$. The one thing that stands out as a possible long term trade idea is in the oil market, where WTI finished the year above the neckline of the reverse head shoulder formation that we spoke about prior to Christmas. This gives plenty of scope for WTI to head higher in 2017, where the head/shoulder objective is at around 82.00, with the neckline currently at 50.60. Much here depends on OPEC/Non-OPEC members maintaining their agreement regarding production cuts. A failure to do so would see a quick decline in the price of oil so keep SL on long positions tight, below the neckline, probably somewhere under 50.00.  I have included the oil chart below.

Good luck with the trading in 2017!

Green = Possible Buy Opportunity.

Red = Possible Sell Opportunity.

The products marked in red/green suggest either a short term (1hour/4 hour charts) or a longer term trend, where the dailies are aligned or seem to be aligning with the weekly indicators.

The shorter term (1+4 hour)) momentum indicators may also be aligned with the longer term charts, but equally likely, they may be pointing in the opposite direction and may suggest a buy or sell level on a pullback, in which case they may show a short term bias that differs from the longer term trend. In order to work out the short term trades, or to look for levels at which to enter the market hoping to take advantage of the longer term trend, this table should be used in conjunction with the daily outlook on www.fxcharts.net using the buy/sell support/resistance levels mentioned in the individual currency pairs, commodities or indices as a guide.

The trend tables are based on the direction of the oscillators for the various time frames, using a combination of MACDs, RSIs and Slow Stochastics.

 

 

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EURUSD

USDJPY

GBPUSD

USDCHF

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

1 Hour

Down

Neutral

Turning lower

Neutral

Turning higher

Neutral

4 Hour

Down

Neutral

Neutral

Turning higher

 

Turning lower

               

Neutral

               

Day

Up – Bullish Divergence?

Down

Neutral

Turning lower?

Turning higher

Turning higher

Week

Down

Up

Turning higher

Up

Neutral –Turning lower?

Neutral – Turning lower?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

S+P

DJI

ASX SPI

GOLD

SILVER

OIL-WTI

1 Hour

Down

Down

Turning lower

Down

Down

Neutral

4 Hour

Turning lower

Turning lower

Turning lower

Turning lower

Turning lower

Neutral

Day

Down

Down

Possible topping formation?

Up

Neutral

Up – Possible topping formation?

Week

Up –Possible topping formation?

Up –Becoming Overbought – Possible topping formation?

Turning higher?

Down

Neutral -Turning lower?

Turning higher?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURJPY

EURGBP

GBPAUD

AUDJPY

EURAUD

AUDNZD

1 Hour

Neutral

Turning higher

Turning lower

Neutral

Turning lower

Neutral

4 Hour

Neutral

Turning lower

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

Turning higher

Day

Turning lower

Up

Neutral

Turning lower

Turning higher

Neutral

Week

Up

 

Down

Turning higher

Up – Possible topping formation?

Neutral

Neutral