4-Jan-17: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities,Indices

By | January 4, 2017

Markets have been choppy again and not too much stands out as a possible trading opportunity. In the short term, Yen strength may continue to be the theme but the markets are volatile in thin conditions and ahead of the FOMC Minutes/NFP data we could see some exaggerated moves either way. Silver may be picking up some positive momentum, but that is really a view on the direction of the dollar more than anything, I suspect.  I have been quite bullish on the outlook for WTI but today’s key-day reversal, following a new 18 month high, throws an element of doubt into the outlook. Stops should remain in place, tight below the H/S neckline (50.60), preferably just under 50.00. In the stock markets, the DJI appears to suggest lower levels may lie ahead but there is no follow through and I would leave it alone for now as the FOMC Minutes could produce a spike higher if they are more hawkish than expected.

Overall, for the rest of the week, a cautious stance is required.

Green = Possible Buy Opportunity.

Red = Possible Sell Opportunity.

The products marked in red/green suggest either a short term (1hour/4 hour charts) or a longer term trend, where the dailies are aligned or seem to be aligning with the weekly indicators.

The shorter term (1+4 hour)) momentum indicators may also be aligned with the longer term charts, but equally likely, they may be pointing in the opposite direction and may suggest a buy or sell level on a pullback, in which case they may show a short term bias that differs from the longer term trend. In order to work out the short term trades, or to look for levels at which to enter the market hoping to take advantage of the longer term trend, this table should be used in conjunction with the daily outlook on www.fxcharts.net using the buy/sell support/resistance levels mentioned in the individual currency pairs, commodities or indices as a guide.

The trend tables are based on the direction of the oscillators for the various time frames, using a combination of MACDs, RSIs and Slow Stochastics.

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EURUSD

USDJPY

GBPUSD

USDCHF

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

1 Hour

Up

Down

Turning lower

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

4 Hour

Down

Neutral

Neutral

Neutral

 

Neutral

               

Neutral

               

Day

Up – Turning Neutral?

Down

Neutral

Turning lower?

Turning higher

Turning higher

Week

Down

Up

Up – Turning Neutral?

Up

Turning lower

Neutral – Turning lower?

 

 

 

 

 

 

S+P

DJI

ASX SPI

GOLD

SILVER

OIL-WTI

1 Hour

Neutral

Down

Down

Neutral

Up

Down

4 Hour

Neutral

Turning lower

Neutral

Neutral

Turning higher

Turning lower

Day

Down

Down

Up

Up

Turning higher

Turning lower

Week

Up –Possible topping formation?

Up –Becoming Overbought – Possible topping formation?

Turning higher?

Down

Neutral -Turning lower?

Turning higher?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EURJPY

EURGBP

GBPAUD

AUDJPY

EURAUD

AUDNZD

1 Hour

Turning lower

Up

Turning lower

Down

Turning higher

Up – Possible topping formation?

4 Hour

Turning lower

Neutral

Turning lower

Neutral

Down

Turning higher

Day

Turning lower

Up

Neutral

Turning lower

Neutral

Neutral

Week

Up

 

Down

Turning higher

Up – Possible topping formation?

Neutral

Neutral