5 Oct: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | October 5, 2018

It is NFP day today, so a cautious tone is prudent, but in the short term the US$ looks as though it may remain under some pressure, with the Euro and Cable looking quite positive. In the longer term, there is no change in the view that while the Fed continue to hike rates and bond yields move higher, the dollar should continue to outperform. Buying dips in the dollar is favoured as a medium term trade.

The Aud$ and the Kiwi still look heavy, and so looking for levels to sell both is favoured, both against the US$ and also against the Jpy, where the crosses seem to have further downside potential. As with yesterday, keep an eye on the Cad$, where higher levels still seem to lie ahead, at least against the Aud$, even though it has already come quite a long way. Look to sell near term rallies.

Note that EurGbp is on the verge of breaking below the 200 DMA support and appears to have further downside momentum ahead of it.

Gold and Silver are choppy, going nowhere fast, and best left alone today, while WTI gave back significant ground, and although in the longer term I suspect we still move towards the Head/Shoulders target at around 80.00, the near term the charts now suggest that we may see a run back towards the neckline, currently at 72.00. Sell rallies towards 75.50, with a SL placed above the trend high of 76.85.

US stocks are also lower today and we may have now seen a medium term top. Selling the S+P near current levels, with a SL placed above 2950 may be a plan but a good NFP reading will probably see stocks head higher again so I prefer to remain square heading into the data.


*Trade of the day: October 5, 2018 7:38 AM(AET)                            

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

Sell WTI @ 75.50. SL @ 76.90, TP @ 72.50

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1600. SL @ 1.1680, TP @ 1.1460

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1475. SL @ 1.1445, TP @ 1.1540

Sell US$Jpy @ 114.50. SL @ 114.80, TP @ 113.00

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7110. SL @ 0.7155, TP @ 0.7030

Sell Gold @ 1200. SL @ 1207, TP @ 1185

Sell EurGbp @ 0.8875. SL @ 0.8920, TP @ 0.8775


Range Trade: AudUsd: 0.7015//0.7115 (SL 30 points either side)