8 Apr: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | April 8, 2019

The US Unemployment data provided very little directionally in any of the markets and there is not an awful lot to go on at the start of the week. We therefore look likely to be fairly rangebound, possibly until the ECB Meeting on Wednesday.

In the FX space, there is very little directional bias although the Kiwi does look a little heavy and is currently sitting on the support at 0.6735 (200 DMA). A break would allow for a run down towards 0.6695 (50% pivot of 0.6424/0.6969) and possibly towards 0.6627 (61.8%) although that seems a long way off given the limited volatility in the markets at present.

EurUsd has found decent support at 1.1200 over the last couple of days, which has held into the weekend. A break of 1.1175 is needed to reignite any downside pressure, with targets then likely to be 1.1125 (20 June 2017 low), 1.1100 and 1.1065. Above last Thursday’s high of 1.1247, Fibo resistance at 1.1268 (23.6% of 1.1569/1.1175) will provide the initial resistance, above which could then run on to 1.1300/25. Wait for the ECB, Wednesday, to provide some direction.

Note that US$Jpy closed the week above the 200 DMA at 111.45, and if it manages to make further gains, the 200 WMA lies at 112.05. The charts are fairly neutral but I prefer to be long, buying dips with a SL placed below 111.20, or preferably below 111.00.

AudUsd again ran into descending trend resistance at 0.7130 on Friday, before closing the week back at just above 0.7100. Further choppy trade looks likely, but beyond 0.7130 would allow for a run towards the 100 DMA at 0.7150, above which opens the way to the 200 DMA at 0.7205, albeit not today. The downside will again find support at 0.7100, below which would open the way to 0.7080. Under here would see good support at 0.7050 and again at 0.7000, although again, this is unlikely to be seen today.

Note that on the crosses, AudNzd looks as though it may be forming a base and could continue to squeeze higher. Resistance is seen at 1.0625/50 while support arrives at 1.0495 (100 DMA), so keep SL in place below here.

More interestingly, US stocks had another steady but positive session following the US jobs data, and the indices do appear ready to continue to the topside in the medium term, where a run to levels above 2900 in the S+P may be on the cards, with the all time high at 2944 not so far away. At the same time, the DJI may see a run towards 26750, above which could target the all time high at 26960.

WTI also had a positive session on Friday, after having broken above the 200 DMA last week, and now sits at 63.26. , The nearby resistance sits at 63.50 (61.8% of 76.87/42.23), beyond which, further offers will arrive at the greater degree of Fibo resistance, seen at 66.80 (50% pivot of 107.65/26.03). As we said previously, the S/H/S target is at 70.00. Buy dips, with SL below 61.25.


*Trade of the day: April 8, 2019; 8:56 AM(AET)                      

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

All trades are good till 5.00pm NY time. All “in the money trades” should have the SL raised to break-even, or managed manually. All “out of the money trades” should keep original SL in place.

Sell EurUsd @1.1250. SL @ 1.1305, TP @ 1.1180

Buy EurUsd @ 1.1175. SL @ 1.11400, TP @ 1.1290

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7135. SL @ 0.7175, TP @ 0.7050

Buy AudUsd @ 0.7020. SL @ 0.6990, TP @ 0.7145

Buy S+P @ 2875. SL @ 2850, TP @ 2900

Buy WTI @ 62.00. SL @ 61.25, TP @ 63.50