4 Oct: Trend table outlook for FX, Commodities, Indices

By | October 4, 2018

The US$ had another good day against all the majors after the solid US data,  and heading into the NY close it looks as though the move is not done with yet so selling any of the majors against the dollar remains the plan. Further out, the longer term charts suggest much the same, and with the DXY now having now easily taken out the important 95.65 resistance, I suspect we could be headed towards 100 into the yearend.

The crosses look fairly neutral although NzdJpy looks a bit heavy, and as with yesterday, keep an eye on the Cad$, where higher levels still seem to lie ahead, at least against the Aud$ even though it has already come quite a long way. Look to sell near term rallies.

Gold did squeeze back to 1208 yesterday but is now back at 1197 and looks a bit heavy so continuing to sell rallies is favoured. Further out, another test of 1160 is favoured.

US stocks still look bid in the longer term, especially the DJI, but I am wary of the bearish divergence in the weekly charts and prefer to stand aside. The short term charts suggest that the DJI might be worth a sell with a SL placed above the new all-time high.

WTI initially fell to 74.30 but then rallied hard, reaching 76.85 and seems to be on its way to the reverse Head/Shoulders target at around 80.00. If not already long, don’t chase it here but look to buy dips towards 75.00, with a SL today placed below the session low of 74.30..


*Trade of the day: October 4, 2018 7:07 AM(AET)                            

*This is a personal opinion only, based on the look of the table below, and carries no guarantee of success.

Buy WTI @ 74.85. SL @ 74.25, TP @ 77.00

Sell EurUsd @ 1.1530. SL @ 1.1580, TP @ 1.1430

Buy US$Jpy @ 114.00. SL @ 113.50, TP @ 115.00

Sell AudUsd @ 0.7135. SL @ 0.7175, TP @ 0.7030

Sell Gold @ 1200. SL @ 1207, TP @ 1185


Range Trade: AudUsd: 0.7140//0.7240 (SL 30 points either side)

Range Trade: EurUsd: 1.1530//1.1430 (SL 30 points either side)